Gaddabout's Grades: Cumulative (7 games)

Apologies for the delay. My new work hasn't allowed me the time it takes to put the numbers together and put a post like this up. I wanted to take opportunity of a brief break in the action to put a cumulative Gaddabout's Grade's together as a measure of ASU's progress this season.

3rd Down Efficiency

2006 ASU offense: 64/129, 37.9% (5th Pac-10, 62nd natoinally)
2007 ASU offense (7 games): 45/106, 42.5% (6th Pac-10, 38th nationally)
2006 ASU defense: 64/174, 36.8% (6th Pac-10, 51st nationally)
2007 ASU defense (7 games): 32/111, 28.8% (2nd Pac-10, 11th nationally)
2007 Pac-10 leader offense: Oregon, 50/99, 50.5%
2007 Pac-10 leader defense: UCLA, 30/112, 26.8%
2007 NCAA leader offense: Missouri, 60/106, 57.1%
2007 NCAA leader defense: Kansas, 29/113, 25.7%

Analysis: It's not hard to see why ASU is 7-0. Moderate improvement in offensive efficiency, strong improvement in defensive efficiency. Defense is about preventing the other team from scoring, but there's a direct relationship between how a defense handles 3rd down and scoring. ASU is 4th in the nation in scoring defense at 15 points a game, more than 10 points better than a year ago. Offensively, ASU is merely taking fewer risks, with more balance in the play calls between run and pass. It's put the offense in more advantageous 3rd down positions where a decent running game can make a difference. ASU ran the ball well last year, but faced too many 3rd and longs because the play calling was heavy on 7-step drops and deep routes on 1st and 2nd downs last year.

TURNOVERS

2006 ASU: -1, -.8 per game (68th nationally, 7th Pac-10)
2007 ASU (7 games): +6, .86 per game (22nd nationally, 2nd Pac-10)
2007 Pac-10 leader: Cal, +7, 1.0 per game
2007 NCAA leader: Fla. Atlantic, +18, 2.57 per game

Analysis: A positive turnover margin doesn't win games alone, as evidenced by Fla. Atlantic's 4-3 record. But a negative turnover margin is the quickest way to lose games you're not supposed to lose and a general sign of a team that will implode in pressure-packed big games. ASU is doing much better in that category thanks to a ball-hawking defense that has a respectable 12 interceptions. Rudy Carpenter is on pace to throw two less interceptions than last year, a reasonable improvement, although it's difficult to think of an interception that wasn't his fault -- can't think of a tipped pass among them. ASU is doing well holding on to the ball, particularly the running backs, but that is an odd traditional strength for the program since Bruce Snyder first became head coach. ASU has had one nail-biter in 7 contests and it was the game they were upside down in turnovers, although ASU's one interception was a key one -- a game-winning touchdown return by Justin Tryon. It should be noted the +3 in the Oregon State game skews these numbers a bit and ASU is not quite as strong as the cumulative number suggests.

PENALTIES

2006 ASU: 7.92/64 yds pg (113th nationally, 10th Pac-10)
2007 ASU (7 games): 7.1 per game/70 yds pg (78th nationally, 4th Pac-10)
2007 Pac-10 leader: Oregon, 5.7/53 yds pg
2007 NCAA leader: Iowa St., 3.5/30 yds pg

Analysis: This is a wacky year for officiating in the Pac-10. The difference between 2006 and 2007 for ASU looks like a slight regression, but the change in clock officiating (a return to clock stoppage after kick team exchanges, for example) has returned about 15 plays per game from the line of scrimmage. Frankly, ASU is more efficient in this category than last year. Quite a bit improved, actually. But it should say something that Oregon is the Pac-10 leader and checks in at 30th nationally. The refs are simply having more influence in our conference than any other. USC, the conference's traditional fewest penalties leader since Pete Carroll arrived, is dead last in the conference and 109th in the nation with a whopping 8.29/74 ypg. average. UCLA is barely ahead of USC with 8.29/65 ypg. Even Cal, traditionally disciplined under Tedford, is picking up almost two more flags a game from the previous year. There's simply no rational way to account for these changes, but ASU's penalty per 85 plays from the LOS is MUCH better than the previous year.

Overall: ASU is much improved, but these are numbers begging to be challenged by the meat of the schedule ahead. It should be noted that Oregon grades out strong in all the efficiency categories and, by those standards, appears to be ASU's most challenging opponent by a long shot. Cal is mediocre in many of these categories and USC and UCLA look entirely capable of shooting themselves in the foot in close games.

College football is an emotional game. It's impossible to measure, say, two fumbles at midfield that produce no points against a late muffed punt return that's easily converted for a score. If a team picks up 7 penalties in the first half and none in the second, which team is more likely to win the game? Personnel changes at QB probably have something to do with the efficiency problems at USC, UCLA, and Cal. Momentum and emotion toys with efficiency stats if you try to place them in a microsystem to predict outcome.

But efficiency stats remain the strongest indicator of performance in three key categories: coaching, player performance consistency, and mental fortitude. Efficiency stats remain the strongest indicator of the big picture, which is which teams are making forward progress to a good season and which teams are likely to falter over 11 or 12 games. ASU definitely looks to have forward progress with at least one potential major roadblock in Eugene ahead.

Gaddabout's Grades

Sometimes resiliency is better than efficiency, and so far the Sun Devils have proven that this season. It was yet another inefficient game and it, once again, kept a Devils' opponent in a game that should not have been so close. It's called playing with fire. It's not something you want to do against a Pac-10 opponent.

3rd Down Efficiency

Off. 4 of 9, 44.4%; Def. 6-of-18 33.3%: It was actually not as good as it looks, because San Diego State was 2-for-2 on 4th down, but the numbers on third down are exactly where they need to be. One can only cross their fingers that these numbers hold up over the course of the season.

Grade: B-

Turnovers

Ratio: Net zero. What can be said? One more strange pass into no man's land for Carpenter that, for all intents and purposes, was easily forgettable considering the game he had. But the fumbles aren't a promising trend for the future. Nolan picked up an INT for the Devils to even things out. Otherwise, no fumbles. That's progress.

Grade: C

Penalties

8 penalties, 73 yards: I suppose we should be celebrating here because ASU only had one personal foul. The primary offender was the offensive line with four holds and an illegal block, but watching the game I have to agree with Erickson that this referee staff was calling it differently than the first two games. You just don't see holding called that often when the linemen's hands stay inside the shoulders. ASU had an illegal block, but the refs missed a big chop block on SDSU that I think was the play that put Gerald Munns out for three weeks with a Grade 3 knee ligament sprain. It was a pretty nasty block. Not intentional, but I was aghast no flag was thrown.

Grade: C-

Summary

Overall grade: C. Better than the Colorado game, but it was still sort of typical of the kind of carelessness we've seen in the out of conference schedule. I'm not expecting this team to set records with efficiency, but these numbers have to improve if they plan on collecting 5 or more wins in the conference. They need to sustain what they're doing on 3rd down and, at the very least, win the turnover battle in a few games without totally blowing it in the rest of the games. I'm going to concede this team -- as with most Erickson teams -- are just going to draw a lot of yellow laundry. You live with it as long as (a) it's not the nasty 15-yard variety and (b) the aggressiveness is also producing the positive kinds of plays that keep spirits high and momentum in maroon and gold.

Gaddabout's Grades: Colorado

Gaddabout's Grades is an on-going experiment measuring ASU's efficiency stats in comparison to success on the field. The author believes any earnest study of modern college football history reveals successful teams are efficient teams.

It's almost impossible to pick a spot to begin in a game in which ASU commits seven personal fouls, and 12 total penalties for over 100 yards. The first quarter alone was enough to quarantine the game film and only bring it out as punishment to anyone who thinks reckless abandon is the best and only way to play a game.

In the interest of consistency, I will continue the endeavor:

3rd Down Efficiency

Off. 5-of-18, 27.7%; Def. 4-of-18 22.2%: There's not much to explain here. Defense, good. Offense, disappointing rushing game. With Ryan Torain nursing an ankle injury, there were first-half moments where ASU actually failed to advance the ball an inch on 3rd-and-short. That won't cut it against a Pac-10 team.

If you're looking for the hidden stat here, it's fourth down conversion. ASU was 2/3 and Colorado was 0/4. When combined with 3rd down conversion, ASU was actually at 33 percent while Colorado was at a miserable 18 percent.

Grade: D

Turnovers

-2: Carpenter made one bad throw in this game. No one seemed to be communicating to Tyrice Thompson where he was in relation to the punted ball. Brent Miller makes a good catch downfield only to get a helmet square on the ball. It was a strange game, and one I don't think will be repeated. The only turnover I found disconcerting was the one ASU didn't lose -- Herring's fumble out of bounds that could have really changed the momentum of the game for good.

It's an ugly number, but I don't think it's as bad as it looks. Maybe ASU got this type of game out of the way so they won't have it against the better conference teams. Fingers crossed, anyone?

Grade: C-

Penalties

12-for-136: Of the 12 penalties, 11 of them were the kinds of mental mistakes directly related to coaching. Erickson said he doesn't see those kinds of mistakes on the practice field. Well, now you've got a whole film of them, coach. Time to get to work.

With the halo rule gone, timing the punt coverage to arrive at the returner at the same time of the ball is now an important skill. Regardless of the rule chance, you STILL CAN'T HIT THE RETURNER BEFORE THE BALL GETS THERE. I'm glad we've got that covered and we can get on with the season without seeing another mental mistake like that one.

Grade: F-

Summary

This happens every year. A team defies the efficiency stats and wins a game in spite of eye-popping inefficiency. What I can guarantee you is the never goes on for an entire season. If ASU is in double digits in penalties, upside down in turnover margin, and less than at least 35 percent on offensive 3rd-down conversion, it will not be playing beyond the UA game. That's a college football certainty.

So why did ASU win? Defense has a lot to do with it. Any team that holds an opponent's offense to less than 20 percent third-down conversion will win most of the team. ASU was just that much better than Colorado.

Don't count on surviving a game like this against a ranked opponent, though.

Grade: D-

Gaddabout's Grades

Long-timers at The Ranch will remember the origination of Gaddabout's Grades a few years ago: We were trying to determine if there was true forward motion in the program. More than a few years back I did a little study of modern-era college football teams, and the teams that were consistently ranked tended to do well in efficiency categories. It was not 100 percent accurate every year, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a team that had extended success that didn't do well in efficiency categories.

Since the advent of the Top 25 (as opposed to the original Top 20), ranked teams tended to have the following qualities: better than 38 percent offensive 3rd-down conversion; less than 38 percent defensive 3rd-down conversion; 6.5 penalties a game or less; a season's turnover margin better than approximately +8. ASU consistently failed in Gaddabout's Grades under Koetter, and actually regressed the last two seasons. The penalty situation was exacerbated by the kind of penalties ASU received -- the kind of 10 yards or more. It is no stretch to state that Koetter's unemotional approach to game prep had no impact on ASU's execution during the game. In fact, it was some of ASU's least efficient years in memory.

I did not expect ASU to make any dramatic improvements in these categories under Erickson. His teams tend to draw a lot of penalties from aggressive play. I did expect improvement in 3rd down efficiency on both sides of the ball. I think turnovers always will depend on the strength of the running game and experience at quarterback.

3rd Down Efficiency

Off. 13-of-17, 76.4%; Def. 28.5%: Total domination by ASU in this category. This is a direct relationship to ASU's line play. When it counted -- in the first half -- ASU was 6-of-7 to SJSU's 3-of-7.

Maybe ASU didn't get a lot of pressure on the QB, but the line held their gaps. On the other side, this is the product of strong running and a line blowing holes open. When you're constantly facing 3rd-and-short on offense, you tend to score more touchdowns and attempt less field goals. It's a sign of many other things going right.

Grade: A

Turnovers

+1: Nothing dynamite here, but ASU got two interceptions by forcing SJSU to do what it didn't want to do -- throw the ball. I'm giving a little extra credit here because the fumble came from Brent Miller, a typically reliable tight end, rather than from a quarterback or running back. Danny Sullivan also fumbled but got it back -- and credit to him for not losing his head in what was a very efficient game for him.

Grade: B

Penalties

5-for-40: Not bad. The intensity was high as it should be in the season opener. I would have been forgiving if ASU picked up a few more considering the intensity and a coach who lets his teams have fun on the field, but 5 penalties a game for the season is conference champion-type numbers. Both USC and Cal have averaged about 5.5 penalties a game the past 5 seasons.

What was also interesting was SJSU's 3 penalties. Not only was ASU heavily penalized last year, they seemed to draw the other team into drawing a lot of penalties, too. The number of the opponent usually does drop when the better team executes well. It tends to raise the level of execution for both teams. I suspect that's what we saw here.

Grade: A-

Summary

I cannot imagine the season starting better for ASU. They didn't just destroy the opponent, they avoided the kinds of execution pitfalls that suggested red flags for the future. For now I will ring this up as what we should have expected from a mostly veteran staff who knows how to get a team ready for a season opener.

The greater challenge is maintaining this kind of execution throughout the season. One cannot expect ASU to maintain a 75% third-down conversion percentage for an entire season, but 60+% for the month of September would be reason to get excited for this team heading into conference play. It would be much better if ASU clocked a +2 or better in turnovers, but if the 3rd-down conversion ratios remain strong and penalties continue to stay at a minimum, ASU won't need to collect so many turnovers to beat good teams. They will, however, need to hold on to the ball.

Overall grade: A-